“Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high-frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios. Most important, Bernie’s long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the ‘dismal science’ lively and interesting.” — Allen Sinai , CEO and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.

“This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.”

— David Wyss , Former Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s

“Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.” — Hugh Johnson , Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Hugh Johnson Advisors

“Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys. Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work—an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well.”

— Robert Hormats , Former Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)

“If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics…he knows what he’s talking about, and his expertise proves it.”

— Gerald Celente , Founder, The Trends Research Institute

“Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fastmoving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances.”

— Morris E. Lasky , CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; has managed and consulted on more than $7 billion in problem hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference

“I find Baumohl’s writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn’t heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who’s serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic.”

— Harry Domash , Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter

“I think this is an excellent book. It’s well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use.”

— D. Quinn Mills , Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor Emeritus, Harvard Business School

THE SECRETS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This page intentionally left blank

THE SECRETS OF ECONOMIC Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities INDICATORS

THIRD EDITION

BERNARD BAUMOHL

Vice President, Publisher: Tim Moore Associate Publisher and Director of Marketing: Amy Neidlinger Executive Editor: Jim Boyd Editorial Assistant: Pamela Boland Operations Manager: Jodi Kemper Marketing Manager: Megan Graue Cover Designer: Alan Clements Managing Editor: Kristy Hart Project Editor: Betsy Harris Copy Editor: Cheri Clark Proofreader: Kathy Ruiz Indexer: Larry Sweazy Compositor: Nonie Ratcliff Manufacturing Buyer: Dan Uhrig © 2013 by Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as FT Press Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458

This book is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services or advice by publishing this book. Each individual situation is unique. Thus, if legal or financial advice or other expert assistance is required in a specific situation, the services of a competent professional should be sought to ensure that the situation has been evaluated carefully and appropriately. The author and the publisher disclaim any liability, loss, or risk resulting directly or indirectly, from the use or application of any of the contents of this book.

FT Press offers excellent discounts on this book when ordered in quantity for bulk purchases or special sales. For more information, please contact U.S. Corporate and Government Sales, 1-800-382-3419, corpsales@pearsontechgroup.com. For sales outside the U.S., please contact International Sales at international@pearson.com.

Company and product names mentioned herein are the trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in the United States of America First Printing July 2012 ISBN-10: 0-13-293207-5 ISBN-13: 978-0-13-293207-3 Pearson Education LTD. Pearson Education Australia PTY, Limited Pearson Education Singapore, Pte. Ltd. Pearson Education Asia, Ltd. Pearson Education Canada, Ltd. Pearson Educatión de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. Pearson Education—Japan Pearson Education Malaysia, Pte. Ltd. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Baumohl, Bernard. The secrets of economic indicators : hidden clues to future economic trends and investment opportunities / Bernard Baumohl. — 3rd ed.

p. cm. ISBN 978-0-13-293207-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Economic forecasting. 2. Economic indicators. 3. Business forecasting. I. Title. HB3730.B38 2012 330.01’12—dc23

2012018000

To my mother, Eva Baumohl, a Holocaust survivor; and in memory of my father, Naftali Baumohl

Contents

	What’s New in the Third Edition? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxi
C H A P T E R 1	The Lock-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
	U.S. Economic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
	International Economic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
C H A P T E R 2	A Beginner’s Guide: Understanding the Lingo . . . . . . . . . . 19
	Annual Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
	Business Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
	Consensus Surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
	Moving Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
	Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current
	Dollars Versus Constant Dollars) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
	Revisions and Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
	Seasonal Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
	The Great Recession of 2008–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
C H A P T E R 3	The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . 31
	Emplo yment
	Employment Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
	Job Openings and Labor Turnover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
	Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
	Help-Wanted Online Advertising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
	Corporate Layoff and Hiring Announcements . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
	Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
	ADP National Employment Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
	Consumer Spending and Conf idence
	Personal Income and Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82
	Retail Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
	E-Commerce Retail Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
	Weekly Chain Store Sales Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
	Consumer Credit Outstanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107
	Consumer Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
	Survey of Consumer Sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120

ix